Happy National Day 2008 - How Old Are We, 45 or 51?

In the midst of cheers as the National Day descended, I joined in the crowds to embrace

this wonderful occasion with pride and delights!

Every year's National Day celebrations come with fervent debates on the age of our nation. Similarly, are we 45 or 51 years old this year?

Our Federal Government designated the National Day celebrations based on August 31, 1957 when Malaya gained independence. On this basis, we are, therefore, legitimately 51 years old this year.

However, for certain quarters in Sarawak and Sabah, it is inconceivable that Malaysia could be 51 years old now. They based their argument on the contention that the formation of nation actually took place on Sept. 16, 1963.

The salient point is on the question of whether Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore joined the Federation of Malaya or formed Malaysia, a new nation, on Sept. 16, 1963.

The real bone of contention is their ( Sarawak, Sabah) argument that Malaysia was formed through an equal partnership between Federation of Malaya, Sarawak, Sabah and Singapore.

Sarawak and Sabah further put forth their basis of claim that they did not enter Federation of Malaya, but they formed Malaysia together with Federation of Malaya and Singapore.

Alas, as we sing "Happy Birthday" and blow off candles, we are still deeply embroiled in this academic argument over age.

Happy National Day! Cheers!

Malaysian Budget 2009 - Deeper Into The Red

Our new budget is taking us to sink deeper into the red, with a projected deficit of 4.8%.

The trend is of concern at this moment of time, not at all to be taken lightly.

When Pak Lah took over from DM the helm of state in 2003, he set out an ambitious plan to achieve a balance budget in 6 years' time.

At the handover, Malaysia's budget was all red with a deficit of 5.6%.

Way back in 1998, DM expanded the fiscal policy to prop up the nation's growth in the wake of the economic recession. The expansionary budget put the nation's growth back on the track.

Pak Lah did remarkably well on the first few years to shrink the deficit progressively at a sustainable growth rate.

But he made a u-turn this time to deliver a budget with a widened deficit, on the face of it to fend off the external shocks. However, a closer look would suggest that Pak Lah has intended the budget to be quite politically motivated.

Would such a dramatic jump in deficit be burdensome to us?

Certainly. Our currency and ratings would be at risk with such a huge debt on the shoulders of all Malaysians.

Following the political tsunami on March 8, Malaysia's credit rating outlook was changed to "stable" from "positive" by Standard & Poor's in May.

Now, with the wider deficit, our credit rating may stand to be downgraded resulting in reducing investment coming into the country and making it more expensive for local companies to borrow.

This is the price we have to pay for such an expansionary budget. Another hidden cost is on our currency.

Malaysian Budget 2009 - Chill Wind Blowing All Over!

This budget was presented in the parliament amidst chill wind blowing all over, both locally and internationally. Simply put, this freshly baked budget has a noble duty to tide the nation over the bumpy front.

On the domestic front, we are hard hit by the political instability and the economic slow-down. All the politically motivated issues have unfavourable impacts on our drive to lure in foreign funds.

The spiralling fuel and food costs have whacked up a new round of fierce inflation, besetting the nation to a slow-down growth. The latest release shows that our inflation rate has sky-rocketed to 8.8% which is worrisome by any standard.

On the international level, U.S. continues to stagger on the downhill road, leaving much room for the whole world to freak out. The world's largest economy is far from over with its subprime and financial woes. Whilst trying to shake off the rising inflation, Uncle Sam is also down with slow-moving economy. Alas, U.S. is now almost in the soup with the fearsome stagflation.

A weakening U.S. is brewing up something unpleasant for us. Being the largest importer of our exports, we really sneeze when Uncle Sam gets a cold.

Malaysian Budget 2009 is going to take us to face up to these economic problems!

Malaysian Budget 2009 - A Concern Of All Malaysians

Our annual Federal budget is up again, falling nicely on tomorrow (August 29, Friday), leaving the full weekend for us to muse over the outlook for 2009. Pak Lah, our PM who doubles up to be MOF, would be geared up in the Parliament to present the hotly- talked Malaysian Budget 2009.



Our Budget Day has been a national event of great excitement to me for a simple reason that it accords me with an opportunity to browse through an outline on the economic outlook fronting the nation.

Locally, budget day zeal is still lacking. I recall when I was at Monash University in Australia, I was pop-eyed with amazement to see the great enthusiasm shown by Aussies generally towards the national budget.

My course work required me to get a copy of daily with full budgetary coverage. That was perhaps the first time I had to join in such a long queue to get my daily! It was amazing that the public there was so zealous about the nation's budget!

Let's come back to our budget for 2009: How is it going to be like? Pak Lah is widely tipped to present an expansionary budget, populist in nature, aiming to pump-prime the gloomy economic front. In short, the government of Pak Lah is going to spend more at a deficit to prop up the slowing economy.

The picture shows Pak Lah in a KTM carriage among the rush-hour crowds for a firsthand experience of complaints plaguing KL's public transport system.

A Threshold Crossed

Right from the start after Dr. Wan Azizah vacated her seat to pave way for DSAI to make a comeback, both BN and PR geared up to fight for vote margin.



DSAI aimed a bigger majority to boost PR's morale. BN, on the other hand, schemed with all the might to dilute Anwar's vote margin to give PR a setback.



This political game had a predictable outcome - a sure win for DSAI, in any event. The only tussle was on how the landslide would be like.



Ideally, DSAI's win should surpass that of Dr. Wan Azizah in terms of majority in order for him to strive forward with a strong backup in his struggle for political reform.



But, considering the advantageous position BN would be in in a by-election, a lesser majority would be understandable and tolerable.



Working on a 75% voting rate, Anwar's really needed a support equivalent to 60% of the votes in order to stay convincing. This was translated to a majority of 10,000 votes.



So, a 10,000-majority was the threshold set for DSAI to cross in his pursuit for a reform-driven struggle.



Any win with a lesser majority than the threshold would demoralize PR to a certain extent and make Anwar less forceful in his political command.



Now, with a strong 15,671-majority, DSAI has effectively amassed sufficient political capital to take off to a new height1

Permatang Pauh By-Election - Anwar Won By A landslide

The unofficial result had it that DSAI won the by-election by a landslide with a majority of 16,210 votes, surpassing that of Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail recorded on March 8 by 2,322 votes.

The astounding win gave a much-needed boost to PR in its pursuit for reform-driven developments for Malaysia.

The whopping majority has grave political implications for both BN and PR. To BN, the electorate made it explicitly clear that the long-time communal politics is not receptive to them anymore. This is especially far-reaching since the constituency is 64% Malay-majority. To PR, the voters gave a pat on the back to drive further for reform.

Lying in the immediate front is time for BN to ponder over its policies resulting in rakyat staying aloof from the Front.

Permatang Paug By-Election - This Is The Day!

August 26 is the day that promises to rack the nerve of all Malaysians. This is the day that is likely to steer the course clear for PR.

Five months down the road after March 8, PR put itself to a real test, the outcome of which has strong implications for the front's future movements and directions.

The anxiety in the political arena of Sarawak is more than anywhere else for a very simple reason that DSAI has targetted the state as the next battlefield.

Sarawak's state election is due in about 2 years' time and it has been hotly speculated to be a fierce one.

Permatang Pauh by-election may provide an indication of the strength of PR in facing up to future struggle.