Monday, April 1, 2013

勇于向銀行借貸的5个理由



是不是没有钱又想投资房地产,才需要向金融机构借钱?现金足够的人,是不是都不该借钱来买房子?首先,我要强调的是我不是鼓吹大家胡乱借钱。也许你不需要(借钱),但是不妨探讨一下这些借钱理由,说不定对你有帮助。要探讨借不借钱的问题,有好几方面必须先厘清和计算好,再考量借与不借,以及两者间的利与弊。以下,我简明列出5大理由,也是借钱的5大考量,让大家参考参考。

时间效应
...
你可以不认同,但每一项列出的理由都是关键;但我也要强调,这文章不是鼓吹大家胡乱借钱。假设你可能需要5年时间,储蓄10万令吉,但如果购买合适产业,1个月内就可以贷款10万令吉。因此,你可以从今天起,展开投资旅程!假如听从父母那些“努力工作、努力存钱”的忠告,相信要在5年后,才可以开始投资。

杠杆作用

然而,若你现在贷款,说不定5年后,就有数十万令吉了。
举个例子,购买一间公寓要价10万令吉,付1万令吉首期,贷款9万令吉。假如屋价上涨10%,这相等于9倍杠杆系数。假设屋价在1年后增值10%,你打算趁机脱售。产业脱售价为11万令吉,解决9万令吉贷款,入账2万令吉。基于贷款关系,回酬率相等于100%;倘若以现金购买产业,回酬率仅10%。我想说的是,杠杆作用是一把双刃剑!如果我给某人一块土地,不教他如何处理,他可以卖给别人吗?是有可能的。再打个比方,我给某人一块土地,并提供所有资讯与指导,教他如何处理,他将会做得非常妥当。总括而言,这并不是杠杆作用好或坏的问题,而是看你懂不懂得处理。

净值累积

随着时间的推移,就算你什么都没做,通货膨胀都会把产业价格推高。因此,我们常常听别人说:“不要等待买产业,应该买了产业才等。”随着时间慢慢过去,我们的负债和贷款也随之降低。在资产价值增加以及负债减少的情况下,净值可能增加2至5倍。试想一想,当你购买产业时,唯有在资产价值增加时,你才可从中受惠。

分两种贷款

很多人没有意识到有两种贷款;第一种贷款是购买房屋自居,称为自己的贷款;第二种贷款是购买投资产业出租,称为投资产业贷款。为了简单起见,假设投资产业为零现金流,租金收入用来偿还银行贷款。换句话说,你解决自己的贷款,租客则帮你偿还投资产业贷款,两种贷款均取决于各自的赚钱能力。假如日后你的赚钱能力有变,自己的贷款将会陷入困境。不过,若租客陷入财务困境,你可以找过另外一个租客。相比之下,自己的贷款风险比较高,因为这取决于你的赚钱能力。

通胀影响银行贷款

现在,10岁小孩每天都有5令吉零用钱。相比40年前,10岁小孩的零用钱只有5仙。想象一下,今天的5令吉在40年后是多少钱?它将是500令吉!这就是通货膨胀。很多人都没有意识到通货膨胀也会影响银行贷款;举个例子,100万令吉贷款,5%利息。基本贷款利率(BLR)是不同的,但是我保守估计为5%。
根据这个贷款,每年的分期付款共7万500令吉,乘以25年,需要支付银行177万令吉。这听起来要偿还很多钱,父母一定认为你发疯了。但是他们以及很多人都没有意识到,你现在欠银行177万令吉,打算马上还清吗?不是,你是在未来25年内,每年偿还7万500令吉。假如把通货膨胀率计算在内(假设通胀率为4%),未来偿还的数额只是值得110万令吉。也就是说,贷款100万令吉,每年偿还7万500令吉,达25年,但当计算通胀率后,只是偿还110万令吉而已。若通胀率高于5%,你就是在赚着银行的钱!

家庭通胀率平均6%

实际上,很多家庭的通胀率都在6%左右。贷款100万令吉,就算利息是5%,只需要偿还90万7000令吉。
那么,银行知道这个情况吗?
我想说的是,超过90%的银行都没有察觉这个情况。
我曾经在一些银行的办公室举行座谈会时,向银行家提过上述情况。
银行也有通胀,例如雇员薪金及租金每年都在增加。如果他们在未来20至25年提供贷款,而你把通胀计算在内,银行实际上是亏钱的
非官方通胀率2因素造成
另外,很多人都不知道有两种通胀率。第一种是由政府告诉我们的,称为官方通胀率(一般用消费价格指数,即CPI来衡量),目前为3%;第二种则是非官方通胀率,一般介于4至8%。
非官方通胀率由两个因素造成,生活方式及孩子的生活方式。
惟孩子的生活方式则不在控制范围内。假设你的通胀率为4%,孩子为8%,平均为6%。
这意味着两件事情。第一,你的所有投资回酬必须是6%,或者与非官方通胀率一样。信托基金的投资回酬仅介于8至10%。如果你的通胀率为6%,这不是很舒适的杠杆作用。
第二,如果贷款100万令吉,利息为5%,通胀率为6%,需要偿还银行90万7000令吉。这就是你如何在赚着银行的钱。
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