Thursday, July 10, 2008

Where Is The Oil Market Heading To From Now Onwards?

The oil price has driven everybody crazy. From West to East, irrespective of rich or developing, all nations are in the soup. The all-time-high oil price has pushed up our CPI (Consumer Price Index), making life a lot more difficult for the ordinary folks.

After rocketing to ceiling-high, there is now this prevalent market concern as to the future direction of oil.

The immediate trend is dependent on the strength of the dollar.

Ben Bernake is mostly to put a brake on the monetaryloosening and poised to tighten the momey supply in the next few months to keep the worsening inflation in check. This is going to spur on the dollar to regain its strong position. With the greenback moving upward against EURO, the international oil price would retrace, giving everybody a sigh of relief. But that is only for the short term.

In longer term, other factors like strong demand, diminishing reserves and costly exploration are going to keep the oil price on the uptrend. In short, the cheap oil era is over.

I wrote an article in Mandarin on the above subject for The Chinese Methodist Message dated July 6. If you are Chinese-literate, you may take the benefits of it.


Daniel said...

Invade Iran and grab all their oil.That's what we do

Tony Hii said...

daniel, but Uncle Sam has Iraq in hand already.