The 12th Parliamentary Election is again a very lopsided game between BN and the opposition front. The present political climate is most favourable for Pak Lah to go back to rakyat to ask for a new term of mandate.
Of 222 parliamentary seats in this election, the opposition front fields a total of more than 150 candidates to mount an offensive challenge against BN with a vision to deny the ruling front's two-third majority in the House of Representatives.
To bring a denial to BN's superiority in the parliament, the opposition front would have to bag up at least 75 parliamentary seats in this election.
But, up to now, there is nothing to suggest that the opposition front has that tremendous popular charisma to swing the basic Malay voters away from UMNO.
Seriously, the front needs a strong Malay backing in order to pose a meaningful challenge to BN.
But the vast majority of Malays have chosen to pledge steadfast loyalty to UMNO, giving the party the necessary superpower to continue to play a dominant role in the nation's politics. It is highly unlikely for the communal group to move away from UMNO in such a way as to weaken the party to the detriment of the Malays.
On this basis, BN is going to come out strong again from this election.
Pak Lah absolutely has no qualms about BN retaining two thirds of the parliamentary seats. What is worrisome is some set-backs in certain UMNO seats and a probable drop in performance in comparison with the previous election. A blow of this nature might be unfavourable to Pak Lah in his efforts to consolidate his foothold in UMNO.
The picture shows Pak Lah in an election campaign.
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