Monash University - Old Sweet Memories

I stayed in Roberts Hall Of Residence throughout my three-year course of studies in Monash University, Australia.

This old, sweet but still well preserved photo takes tons of memories to flow back - all my good days at Monash University.

I still treasure the life at Roberts Hall. This photo has a lot of stories to tell.

Monash University - 50 Years Engaging The World

Monash University, Australia celebrates its Goldem Jubilee this year. As an alumnus, I felt happy to hear the news.

Now the largest university in Australia, Monash, where I spent my youthful days, left me with a sea of sweet memories.

Monash provided me more than just academic education - it essentially trained me to think critically and taught me to take learning as a life-long process.

I recall my professor telling us in our final year, "You would be fast getting out-dated after leaving Monash's lecture hall. Believe me, you have to take learning as a continuing process in your life." The professor's advice stays on deep-rooted in my mind.

Happy Golden Jubilee, Monash University!

Coffee - It's just wonderful!

I love coffee and I have long got addicted to it. Certainly, I am not hooked on it, but the aroma of it easily drives me euphoric.

I developed my love for coffee when I was in KL pursuing Victorian HSC at Taylor's College. During that most memorable two years of studies, Nescafe quietly crept into my life - and I fell for it.

A cup of Nescafe then would keep me company throughout lazy afternoons when I had to work towards the goal of going to Australia for further studies.

At Roberts Hall of Residence in Monash University where I stayed throughout my course of studies, free -yes, absolutely fee - coffee was served in the common room in the evenings to keep students warm and awake. During cold evenings, a cup of hot coffee was excellent for warmimg up - and I never missed it.

In 80s when I went on frenzy diet to trim off all the excesses, I changed my taste to coffee without sugar. I found that coffee served in this format was even better - seriously! Sugarless coffee gives the original taste of it in the most wonderful way.

I have to break off for a cup of coffee now.

Budget 2008

Tomorrow our Prime Minister Dato' Seri Abdullah Badawi, who doubles as the Finance Minister

, shall present the much -awaited Malaysian Budget 2008 to the Parliament. Our eyes shall be on him and all ears shall be pulled long to listen to his speech. Wow! It is going to be exciting since it has been themed, albeit unofficially, an election -motived budget. As such, Malaysians in general have much to look forward to.

Is Santa Claus going to deliver goodies? Certainly - from the budget previews I have been following up, our Prime Minister is going to excite the whole nation with wow!

Budget 2008 appears to gear towards strengthening our domestic demand as a thrust to sustain our economic growth. If the United States is going to slip into recession, Malaysia has to find an alternative to fill up the growth components left vacant by USA. And naturally, domestic consumption is the best available boost to our economy.

When I was as a student at Monash University in Australia, I was also drawn into the excitement on the Australian budget day. I witnessed long queues at newsstands waiting eagerly, but patiently, for their turns to grab the special edition on budget. I was a bit late and had to face a "sold out" notice. I was very touched by their concern for the nation's budget.

Let's see what is our budget for 2008 going to be like tomorrow!

The above picture is downloaded from the website of PWC.

Watch out for Yen! Part 5 ( Final)

The demands for carry trades are sustainable so long as the outlook for Yen continues to be bearish, meaning the currency is foreseen to be on a downtrend due to factor like widening rate differential (between Japan and other major industrialised nations).

Another factor that is likely to spur carry trades demand is the bullish sentiments over stock markets, especially those in the emerging markets.

Any signal that is likely to induce speculators to believe that Yen is tending to strengthen or stock markets are already at higher risks, there would be jitters in the markets sufficient to trigger a sell-off to cut losses.

The logic behind is simple: When Yen goes up, speculators who expose to carry trades would incur huge losses in currency exchange because now they have to buy Yen back at higher exchange rates. Similarly, when markets turn bearish, they have to exit fast and unwind carry trades to protect against losses and vice versa.

When Yen and market outlook are not favourable to hedge funds with large exposure to carry trades, the market would slump fast and turn extremely volatile as borrowers rush to buy back Yen to cover their positions.

As of this date, the Yen carry trades amount to such a huge sum that they have become a cause for concern. The gigantic size of the liquidity has made the world market (particularly the markets of the emerging economies) so sensitive that an unfounded rumour is enough to send the markets tumbling.

I have been tracking Yen and , in this year alone, I have witnessed a few times the currency pricking the market by appreciating.

If you are in the market, it may be worthwhile to track the currency's trend.

Watch out for Yen! - Part 4

When Mr. Junichiro Koizumi took office as the PM of Japan on April 26 2001, he vowed to aggressively push for economic reform. Among other measures taken progressively, he heeded the advice of a top-notch economist from the United States to massively print Yen to lift up the economy.

With the rate of interest at zero, Japan had the world's loosest monetary policy. In sum, Japan's funds were the cheapest in the world - and now, with the enormous Yen printed, the market was flooded with liquidity.

This created a golden opportunity for speculative traders (hedge funds, for example) to borrow cheap Yen for trading in higher-yielding (and riskier) assets, especially those in emerging markets.

This is what we call "carry trades"- which are essentially trades taking advantage of yield differentials (low-yielding Yen anf higher-yielding stocks in China, for example).

This sort of trade yields positive returns, and has since been flourishing, pushing Yen to an even lower rate of exchange.

Yen is reputedly the most undervalued currency in the world - and " carry trades " could be one of the main causes of it.

Yen "carry trades" have been one of the chief factors driving up the Asian stock markets. What implications, then, do Yen movements have on the emerging markets?

Watch out for Yen! - Part 3

Japan's rising surpluses in balance of trade with the United States, in addition to its influential economic power built up over the years, prompted the Americans to pressurise Japan in 70s-80s to immensely revalue its Yen upwardly.

To this, Japan gave in and kowtowed to the American demands - both to its advantage and disadvantage.

After Yen was massively appreciated, Japan lost its competitive edge in exports. In short, Japan could no longer rely on its cheap currency to compete in international export markets.

Instead, Japan had to stand up to the tougher trading environment with quality and efficiency.
The qualitative factor took Japan to even further by leaps and bounds and enabled the nation to swim against the current. With this change in mindset, Japan did impressively well and outperformed most other countries.

But the appreciating Yen also drew in huge speculative funds or hot money to bet on the currency. The foreign funds together with the local excess liquidity inflated the Japanese asset prices enormously - so much so that, at a later stage, the speculative drive turned the property markets into bubbles.

Eventually, in 1990, the property bubbles in Japan burst , causing a terrible havoc to the nation. Nikkei index simply melted down from a height of 40,000 points, wiping out massive wealth of Japanese. The property prices, especially those in Tokyo, slumped down to the bottom. All these sent corporations and individuals alike to join in endless queues of bankrupts.

The chain effects affected the Japan's economy badly, causing it to go into recession for a period of more than 12 years.

During this period, Japan also adopted zero - interest monetary policy to prop up the economy and to lead the nation out of deflation.

Towards the end of 2002, Japan finally started to see twilight of recovery.

Watch out for Yen! - Part 2

Lat's cartoon best illustrated Japan's wealth and its superiority in economic influence - regionally as well as internationally.

It showed Mr. Ohira arriving at KL Subang International Airport on an official visit to Malaysia. At the airport welcoming him was Tun Hussein.

Standing tall and holding up his head, Mr. Ohira had a bit of stuck-up look - not surprising because Japan's superior standing in terms of economic power had raised its status everywhere.

Shocking to Mr. Ohira's counterpart in Malaysia was his lighting up cigarette using a burning Yen note - in fact it was so striking that Tun Hussein raised his eye-brows.

Wow! What a perfect illustration of the richness of Japan in cash.

In 70s and 80s, Japan's quick rise to a rich country status put it in a position to give out aid to developing countries in technology - transfer and Yen -denominated soft loans. Malaysia was one of the benefiting countries.

Mr. Ohira's visit to Malaysia was to finalise certain soft loan packages - and no wonder Lat's humorously depicted him to show off in such an excessive manner.

Japan also used enormous Yen to make inroads into developed countries like U.S.A. The takeover of Rockefeller Center shocked Americans to the extent that they became wary of Japanese, thinking they might threaten the United States. So Americans schemed for the appreciation of Yen to fend off the probable threat.

Watch out for Yen! - Part 1

When I was at Monash University, one place that I loved most to go to during my lunch break or free times was Monash University Malaysian Students' Union room located on thr first floor of Student Union Building.

The MUMSU room became a chit-chatting place for Malaysian students of Monash. That was also the only place where New Straits Times was available to keep us close to homeland. NST was flown in from KL at high postage. Fortunately, Monash Student Union subsidised MUMSU for this meaningful service to the fellow Malaysian students.

I used to bring packed lunch there and waited with patience for my turn to read NST. In short, NST was very hotly demanded there.

At times, MUMSU room was also turned into a venue for airing views on Malaysian politics - and, occasionally, friendly exchanges were overshot into heated-up debate on contentious issues. The place, therefore, conveniently became an important source for me to update on the current political developments back in Malaysia.

I never missed Lat's cartoons in NST, especially those depicting Malaysian political issues.

In one copy of the paper, Lat's almost struck me off the balance with a cartoon on Tun Hussein bin Dato' Onn, then the PM of Malaysia, and Mr. Ohira Masayoshi, the then Japan's PM.

The cartoon was Japanese Yen-related.

A whopping 50% devaluation of Rupiah in 1970s

Don was my coursemate, and my buddy, during my student days at Monash University in Australia. Coming from a well-to-do family in Indonesia, Don was unreservedly straightforward and friendly.

We chatted a lot, and occasionally he would amuse me by chipping in with some interesting, but little known, past events in Indonesia.

One day after our lecture on macroeconomics at Rotunda, I went with Don to buy lunch at Student Union Building. We joined in a long queue for chicken and chips.

Suddenly, Don nudged me and uttered with low voice, "Tony, our lecturer just now was eloquent on currencies - but my story would be even more striking and exciting, also on currency."

That instantly turned me high-spirited and inquisitive. After we got our packed chicken and chips, we settled on a bench in the beautifully landscapped compound of Monash with lush greenery.

"You know, it happened in Indonesia in 1970s when Suharto was at the helm," Don started off.

"One year, the President planned to devalue Rupiah - wow, by a whopping 50%!" Don continued excitedly.

President Suharto divulged this top official secret to his close buddy, a Chinese tycoon W.

Seeing it as a windfall not to be missed, W grabbed it with little hesitation and wasted no time - he liquidized literally all his assets and deposited the whole proceeds in Singapore , in U.S. dollars. W then laid back and waited for the devaluation announcement.

"When the President devalued Rupiah by a stunning 50%, W laughed his way to the bank and switched his entire cash back to Rupiah - wow! wow! wow! his personal wealth simply doubled overnight!" Don finished off with a look of admiration.

For a while, I sank into a state of illusion, musing over the scandalous windfall.

"It was a game of wits and risks - and the winner took it all," I told Don.

Don nodded to me.

This story stays on in my mind as a constant reminder about international currencies - their risks, manipulation and all the wits you need to outdo them.

I lost Don's contact after Monash. He should be in Jakarta. Anyway, sincerely, I hope Don is doing well.