Minimum Wage Policy Comes Into Effect

Najib unveils RM900 wage floor for peninsula, RM800 in Sabah and Sarawak.

50% of Americans See Country Stuck In Recession or Depression

About half of the country, some 46 percent, see the country stuck in a depression or even a depression, a Gallup poll finds.

The good news is 40 percent of Americans believe the U.S. economy is growing, up from 27 percent in April and 3 percent in 2008, the poll finds.

An additional 13 percent of those who see the economy stuck in a downturn say the economy is slowing down even further.

Source: Forrest Jones

Is North Korea Printing Fake US Dollars To Save Economy?

Could North Korea print millions upon millions of nearly undetectable fake U.S. $100 bills and get away with it? They already do, points out one counterfeiting expert. And they seem poised to do more.

The regime, recently taken over by the son of the late Kim Jong Il, has long made so-called “superdollars” for its own ends, mostly to generate cash for its otherwise broke government that it likely uses to buy foreign arms and technology.

“These ultra-counterfeits are light years beyond the weak facsimiles produced by most forgers, who use desktop printers. As an anti-counterfeiting investigator with Europol once put it: ‘Superdollars are just U.S. dollars not made by the U.S. government,’” writes author David Wolman in column published by Time magazine online. “With few exceptions, only Federal Reserve banks equipped with the fanciest detection gear can identify these fakes.”

Editor's Note: You Deserve to Know What Obama and Bernanke Are Hiding From Americans

They are so good at it because they use high-end equipment, so high-end that few other groups in the world can meet the level of quality of North Korean fake U.S. bills, Wolman writes.

“The regime apparently possesses the same kind of intaglio printing press (or presses) used by the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing. A leading theory is that in 1989, just before the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the machines made their way to North Korea from a clandestine facility in East Germany, where they were used to make fake passports and other secret documents,” Wolman writes.

They even use the same paper and procure ink from the same Swiss supplier used by the United States government.

Pyongyang could use their superdollars to flood the world with fake U.S. cash, thus devaluing the currency rapidly, but Wolman believes their aim is likely a bit more prosaic: Using the funny money to finance their own needs.

As he points out, a recent devaluation of its own currency forced upon the regime wrecked the country.

Wolman figures that North Korea has been creating up to $25 million a year in cash for its own ends, just a drop in the ocean of trillions of electronic and cash dollars in global circulation. He advocates simply ceasing to print our own $100 bills — just go electronic — thus instantly turning the global users of our larger cash bills, many of them criminals and drug dealers, into the losers.

The number of dollars in circulation matters beyond the counterfeiting issue. At least part of the reason for the run-up in the price of oil has been expectation among traders that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced to “print” more electronic cash to stave off another U.S. recession.

Since oil is priced in dollars, that means speculators will begin to bet on higher oil prices to compensate for the effective devaluation to come.

Oil hit $108 a barrel in early trading as the U.S. Dollar Index firmed slightly to 78.472. It has traded as low as 70 and as high as 90 in recent years.


Read more: Expert: North Korea Can Flood World With Fake U.S. Cash

Author: Greg Brown

Gold Bulls Expand as Billionaire Paulson Says Buy: Commodities

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Gold traders are getting more bullish after billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told investors it’s time to buy the metal as protection against inflation caused by government spending.

Twelve of 22 surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and five were neutral. Paulson & Co. is already the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange- traded product backed by bullion, with a stake valued at $2.9 billion, a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Feb. 14 showed. Investors have 2,389.7 metric tons in ETPs, within 0.2 percent of the record reached in December and more than all but four central banks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Speculators in U.S. gold futures are now their most bullish since September after the Bank of England and Bank of Japan said they will buy more assets and the Federal Reserve said it was considering purchasing more bonds. Central banks are also expanding their bullion reserves, adding 439.7 tons last year, the most in almost five decades. They may buy a similar amount in 2012, the London-based World Gold Council said yesterday.

“The appalling state of fiscal finances of most industrial nations does lead to concerns about the possibility of inflation,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director of Dublin- based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars. “Gold is a crucial diversification given the various risks out there.”

Bank of America

Gold rose 9.9 percent to $1,722.20 an ounce this year on the Comex in New York. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities gained 6.6 percent and MSCI All-Country World Index of equities climbed 9.7 percent. Treasuries lost 0.5 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Hedge funds and other money managers boosted wagers on higher prices by 57 percent since mid-January. They raised their net-long position by 8.6 percent to 173,172 futures and options in the week ended Feb. 7, the highest level since mid-September, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

Central banks are keeping interest rates at or near record lows and expanding stimulus measures to spur growth that the International Monetary Fund predicted on Jan. 24 will be 3.3 percent this year, down from a previous forecast of 4 percent. Greece is seeking more aid on top of the 110 billion euros ($145 billion) awarded in 2010 and Moody’s Investors Service cut the ratings of six European nations on Feb. 13.

‘Build a Position’

“By the time inflation becomes evident, gold will probably have moved, which implies that now is the time to build a position in gold,” New-York based Paulson said in a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg. Armel Leslie, a spokesman for Paulson, declined to comment.

The 56-year-old manager’s SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 15 percent in the fourth quarter as his $23 billion hedge fund company had its worst-ever year. His Advantage Plus Fund lost 51 percent in 2011, and the firm said in a third-quarter letter that financial services companies were the “primary drag.” Paulson became a billionaire in 2007 by betting against the U.S. subprime mortgage market. Gold rose 10 percent last year in New York trading, an 11th consecutive annual gain.

Europe’s deepening debt crisis may spur some investors to retreat to cash. Bullion dropped 3.4 percent in the three months through December, the first quarterly decline since 2008, as the value of global equities slumped more than $10 trillion from the May peak, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Debt Crisis

“Despite the strong start to global markets this year, the underlying sentiment is still one of fear,” said Chris Weafer, the chief strategist at Troika Dialog, an investment bank in Moscow. “Until the euro zone debt crisis is put to bed, all assets, even gold, are in the risk category.”

Investors should avoid gold because its uses are limited and it lacks the potential of farmland or companies to produce new wealth, Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., wrote in an adaptation of his annual letter to shareholders that appeared on Fortune magazine’s website on Feb. 9.

Vinik Asset Management LP, Tudor Investment Corp. and SAC Capital Advisors LP sold shares in the SPDR Gold Trust in the fourth quarter, filings showed this week. George Soros, the billionaire founder of Soros Fund Management LLC, raised his stake to 85,450 shares from 48,350.

Record investment drove gold demand to 4,067.1 tons last year, the most since 1997, the World Gold Council estimates.

Nine of 24 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect copper to climb next week and seven were neutral. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, rose 7.4 percent to $8,161.50 a ton this year after declining 21 percent last year.

ICE Futures

Ten of 14 people surveyed expect raw-sugar prices to drop next week. The commodity is up 1.8 percent this year at 23.72 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Eleven of 21 people surveyed anticipate lower corn prices next week, while 12 of 22 said soybeans will advance. Corn fell 0.3 percent to $6.4475 a bushel this year as soybeans rose 5.7 percent to $12.77 a bushel.

“By initiating further rounds of quantitative easing, central banks should be one of the supporting factors for commodity prices,” said Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The high uncertainty and growing risk aversion among market players surrounding the Greek debt saga should depress any meaningful price increases.”

--With assistance from Maria Kolesnikova, Agnieszka Troszkiewicz, Isis Almeida and Tony C. Dreibus in London, Jae Hur and Yasumasa Song in Tokyo, Glenys Sim and Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore, Helen Sun in Shanghai, Yi Tian and Saijel Kishan in New York and Jeff Wilson in Chicago. Editors: Stuart Wallace, Claudia Carpenter.

Let Us Hope That The Euro And The EU Do Collapse

Home Blog Let us hope that the euro and the EU do collapse
Let us hope that the euro and the EU do collapse

Written by Tim Worstall | Sunday 5 February 2012

Now yes, agreed, I am known for my euroscepticism, both of the very EU system and of the currency, thinking them both thoroughly bad ideas from start to finish. But I'd like to point out that there are those not as entirely crankish as I am on the subject who think that the toppling of one or both wouldn't be so bad: could even be desirable.

The claim that the downfall of the euro and the EU would produce chaos and war may be interpreted to be just a strategy necessary to get support for helping the highly indebted nations such as Greece, Portugal, Spain, or Italy with ever more financial support. However, conversations I have had with persons from various European countries suggest that many people really believe that Europe will disintegrate and that wars are looming if the EU dissolves. I hold this view to be seriously mistaken.

Good, just to get that out of the way.

The individual countries in Europe will quickly form new treaties among themselves. Collaboration will be maintained in all those areas where it has worked well. Some countries will remain in a newly formed and smaller Eurozone, for which the appropriate treaties will be designed. A similar reconstitution will take place with respect to Schengen, which will then encompass different members. Only those countries that find it advantageous will join a new convention on the free movement of persons. In contrast, those nations that do not find such new treaties attractive, or that are not admitted to them by the other members, will not join.

The result will be a net of overlapping contracts between countries, which the various nations will join at will. These contracts will not be based on a vague notion of what ‘’Europe’ may mean, but rather on functional efficiency. Crucially, the individual treaties will be stable because they will be in the interest of each member.

What is being suggested is a multi-speed Europe, a contractual one or, if you prefer, a liberal conception of inter-state cooperation rather than the building of new over arching state. And it's a vision that I find very attractive indeed. I see no need or, no reason for, a new State of Europe while I can see the obvious benefits of cooperation across the continent.

But let's have that cooperation freely given, freely negotated and split out into its component parts. As Bruno Frey (for it is he) points out:

The essence of ‘Europe’ is variety and diversity rather than étatisme and bureaucracy.

So why in hell is anyone at all trying to constrain such variety and diversity under one set of rules and one set of rulers?

Biggest Holders of US Government Debts

As the U.S. government spends an unprecedented amount of money to fix the economy, there is an equally great need to raise the cash to pay for it. This is accomplished through borrowing, whereby Uncle Sam sells Treasury securities of varying maturity.

For investors, government bills, notes and bonds are considered safe because they have a guaranteed rate of return, based on faith in future U.S. tax revenues. The government has been partially funding operations via Treasury securities for decades.

This borrowing adds to the national debt, which has recently surpassed $15 trillion and is rising every second. The amount of debt is quickly approaching the federal debt ceiling, a legal limit to borrowing that currently stands at $16.4 trillion.

Much of that debt is held by private sector, but about 40 percent is held by public entities, including parts of the government. Here's who owns the most. Foreign countries listed include private and public investors, according to monthly U.S. Treasury data.

1. Federal Reserve and Intragovernmental Holdings

U.S. debt holdings: $6.328 trillion

That’s right, the biggest single holder of U.S. government debt is inside the United States and includes the Federal Reserve system and other intragovernmental holdings. Of this number, The Fed's system of banks owns approximately $1.65 billion in U.S. Treasury securities (as of January 2012), while other U.S. intragovernmental holdings - which include large funds such as the Medicare Trust Fund and the Social Security Trust Fund - hold the rest.

In the monthly Treasury bulletin, both are combined into one category and the total accounts for a stunning $6.328 trillion in holdings as of September 2011 (the most recent number available). The amount is an all-time high as the Federal Reserve continues to expand its balance sheet, partially to purchase U.S. government debt securities. The Social Security Trust fund is required by law to invest in securities where the principal and interest is guaranteed by the Federal government.

About a decade ago, the total government holdings were "only" $2.5 trillion.

2. China


Photo: DAJ RM | Getty ImagesU.S. debt holdings: $1.132 trillion

The largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, China currently has $1.132 trillion in American debt, although it is down from all time highs of $1.173 trillion in July 2011. For more on China and currency, see CNBC Explains.



3. Other Investors/Savings Bonds

U.S. debt holdings $1.107 trillion

With the most recent numbers from June 2011, this extremely diverse group includes individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts, estates, savings bonds, corporate and noncorporate businesses for a total of $1.107 trillion.

Although the level of debt held in U.S. savings bonds has remained basically constant since 2000, the broad category of "other" investors has nearly quadrupled since reaching a four-year low in December 2007.

[Also see: Money Missteps That Matter]

4. Japan


Photo: APU.S. debt holdings: $1.038 trillion

One of the U.S.'s largest trade partners, Japan is also one of the U.S.'s largest debt holders, currently owning $1.038 trillion in Treasury securities.




5. Pension Funds

U.S. debt holdings: $842.2 billion

Pension funds control large amounts of money, reserved for personal retirements, and thus are obligated to make relatively safe investments. This group, which includes private and local government pension funds, holds $842.2 billion in U.S. debt. The private pension fund category also includes U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan G Fund.

6. Mutual Funds

U.S. debt holdings: $653.5 billion

According to the Federal Reserve, mutual funds hold the sixth-largest amount of U.S. debt compared to any other group, although mutual fund holdings have diminished by more than $105 billion since December 2008. Including money market funds, mutual funds and closed-end funds, this group of investments managed about $653.5 billion in U.S. Treasury securities as of June 2011, which are the most recent numbers available.

7. State and Local Governments

U.S. debt holdings: $484.4 billion

U.S. state and local governments have nearly a half-trillion dollars invested in American debt, according to the Federal Reserve. The level of investment has remained stable since 2006, moving within the range of $484 billion and $576 billion. The current debt holdings, however, represent the lowest aggregate level for state and local governments since December 2005, when they stood at $481.4 billion.

[Also see: Save Up to 50% at the Grocery Store]

8. The United Kingdom


Photo: Dominic Burke | Getty ImagesU.S. debt holdings: $429.4 billion

The U.K. currently holds $429.4 billion in U.S. debt, but the country's investment has fluctuated dramatically during the past two years. Now at its all-time high (and rapidly increasing), British holdings were as low as $55 billion in June 2008.




9. Depository Institutions

U.S. debt holdings: $284.5 billion

As of June 2011 (the most recent numbers available), the Federal Reserve Board of Governors lists depository institutions as holding about $284.5 billion in U.S. debt.

This group includes commercial banks, savings banks and credit unions. In 2011, its holdings more than tripled from the 2008 low of $105 billion. Between June and September 2011, holdings for depository institutions fell by nearly $44 billion.

10. Insurance Companies


Photo: Sylvain LeprovostU.S. debt holdings: $250.1 billion

According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, insurance companies hold $250.1 billion in Treasury securities. This group includes property-casualty and life insurance firms.

Source: Yahoo News

Don't Believe In Gold? That Is Ok, Just Leave It To The Chinese!

Don't Believe In Gold? That's Ok, Just Leave It To The Chinese


Chinese demand for gold is coming from every angle - AFP/Getty Images via @daylife
Many investors have reverted to questioning gold again after the yellow metal’s two massive 2011 corrections and relative underperformance toward the end of the year. Despite the skepticism, Chinese demand is red hot, hitting a record in November according to the latest data and possibly helping put a floor under prices and fueling a further bull run.

Gold has had a strong start to 2012, breaking out to the top past its 200-day moving average and closing Wednesday’s session at a four-week high of $1,644 an ounce.

Move up Move down
China's Central Bank Clamps Down On Gold, The Only Safe-Haven Left Agustino Fontevecchia
Forbes Staff
Is GLD Really As Good As Gold? Agustino Fontevecchia
Forbes Staff
China Waking Up? Central Bank Now Selling Forex Reserves To Support Yuan Agustino Fontevecchia
Forbes Staff
Will The U.S. Dollar Reign Supreme In 2012? Agustino Fontevecchia
Forbes Staff
Among the major factors fueling the recent rally is Chinese demand for physical metal, according to UBS’ Edel Tully. Hong Kong trade statistics revealed record gold exports to mainland China in November, with deliveries hitting 102.2 tons.

This represents a 20% sequential increase from the already elevated 85 tons shipped in October. According to Tully, mainland China imported 287 tons from January to November 2011, 49% of which were shipped in October and November. Gold imports to mainland China jumped 483% over November 2010.

“Signs that China is importing a lot of gold are bullish for the market,” explained Tully, “primarily because this metal can’t leave the country – it is not permissible to export gold.” Volumes have increased dramatically as well: while in the first half of 2011 imports averaged 10 tons a month, mainland China received 57 tons in September, 85 in October, and 102.2 in November. Truly impressive numbers.

This forces us to ask the question “who is doing all the buying?” Tully, notes “it is worth highlighting here the lack of full transparency in this market, which makes it difficult to get a clear picture of the distribution channels and ascertain who is behind the buying at this stage.”

Still, she speculates that a portion of that buying is definitely “anticipated demand in preparation for the Lunar New Year,” but history proves that can’t account for these massive volumes. In 2010, Hong Kong exported an average 9 monthly tons to mainland China from January to October, with that number jumping to 17.5 tons in November. “Certainly the growth rate then marked a sizeable increase, but the actual volumes back then are small change relative to the most recent shipments from HK to China,” she wrote.

Discarding retail demand leaves only one suspect standing: the government.

Chinese authorities have been looking to diversify their massive foreign exchange to minimize U.S. dollar risk. Senior PBoC officials have been vocal in suggesting gold as a valid alternative. Last December, Zhang Jianhua, head of the PBoC’s research bureau, asked his peers to “further optimize [the PBoC’s] foreign-exchange portfolio and purchase gold assets when the gold price shows a favorable fluctuation.” Zhang went even further, saying “no asset is safe now, the only choice to hedge risks is to hold hard currency – gold.”

The Chinese government currently holds 1,054 tons of gold, or about 1.8% of its foreign reserves, which experts at the World Gold Council consider a very low number. Chinese gold consumption has doubled over the last decade to about 20% of total yearly production.

Whatever one thinks of gold, the reality is that if China is intent on continuing to increase its gold holdings at the current pace, then prices are bound to continue their decade-long rally.

Investors looking to capitalize on gold’s assent, if indeed it keeps on going up, can do so by tapping into the physically backed SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Another option is gold equities. Despite underperforming in 2011, gold equities remain at record low multiples and could provide good alternatives. Names like Kinross Gold and Barrick Gold have outperformed bullion so far in 2012, while 2011 rock stars like Goldcorp and Newmont have lagged, but still hold potential.

Gold was one of 2011’s best performing assets. Questions remain for 2012, but if China is still buying gold, then it seems hard that prices could fall.


Source: Forbes (11th January, 2012)

Money Matters In 2012

How to Break Bad Money Habits in 2012

By Susan Johnston | US News – Wed, Dec 21, 2011 11:17 AM ESTShare0EmailPrint
According to New York Times contributor and certified financial planner Carl Richards, too many people make bad choices when it comes to money. That's among the reasons for Richards' new book, The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things with Money, which will be released in January.

U.S. News asked Richards about sidestepping common money mistakes, setting financial goals, and more. Excerpts:

What are some of the most common money mistakes you've seen clients make or perhaps that you've made yourself?

One mistake that we've made way too often in relationship to investing is this human tendency we have to buy high and sell low. We all know that successful investing is about buying some asset for a low price, and then selling it sometime later for a higher price. But we all tend to do the opposite. We tend to get very excited when the market's doing well. We all pile in just in time for it to go down. Then it goes down, we all get nervous and scared, and we jump out. So it sounds really simple and cliché, but one of the biggest mistakes we make is buying high and selling low, and doing it over and over again.

Any tips on breaking that pattern?

First, we can recognize the tendency to do it. Fixing any problem always starts with admitting that you have one. And with investing, it's pretty easy to go back the last three years, last five years, last 10 years and look at the decisions you've made. And did you buy in late '99? No. Were you liquidating your 401(k) account in 2002?

Number two, step back and ask yourself why you're doing these things. Take the time to build a plan. Not some big, scary one-inch thick financial plan. Just take the time to step back and say, "Where am I today, and where do I want to go?" And then recognize that your investment portfolio should match that plan.

And then thirdly, go on a media fast. Stop listening to it, or start realizing a lot of what we hear in the financial press is more about entertainment than it is about advice.

You wrote a very candid piece for the New York Times about short-selling your own home and some of the decisions that led you to that point. If you could go back in time, what would you do differently?

Without trying to sound too self-serving for industry, I would have a planner involved in my life. We recently hired a financial planner three, four months ago. And I am convinced that had I had this particular planner involved in my life five or six years ago, I wouldn't have made those mistakes.

Now, I realize there's some baggage as soon as you say, "Hire a financial planner." But maybe the easier way to say it would be get a second opinion about major decisions. Ask a friend, a parent, a family member, CPA, an attorney before you make major financial decisions, because we're just too close to be objective.

Sometimes all it takes is just explaining to somebody what you're thinking about doing out loud. In some cases they don't even have to say anything. All you have to do is hear it out loud, and you realize it was a dumb idea. So I would have hired a qualified financial professional to help me avoid doing stupid things.

Your book is coming out in January, just after many people will have gone on a month-long spending binge. What should readers do to prevent that post-holiday hangover?

Most of these problems I get asked about are planning problems. Take the time to give yourself permission to take no blame, and no shame, and get really clear about your current financial reality. Where are you today? I used to think that was the easy part but the reality is, most of us haven't even figured that out.

After you're really clear, you have some shot at figuring out where you want to go. If you have kids, what do you want to help pay for? Can you pay for college? When would you like to retire? This may be 30 years out--it may seem like a long time--but just figure out where you are today, where you want to go. I've noticed a huge difference in people who've gone through that process on their own or with help, and it seems to me that they have an easier time being disciplined about day-to-day decisions.

Give yourself permission to let go of the need for precision, and this is perpetuated by the industry, of course. When you sit down, you want to know exactly what your retirement is going to look like in 30 years, and you don't even have any idea where you're going to be next month. That's an overwhelming thing. So, at least start with the idea of understanding where you are today and realize this is going to be a process, and you're going to course-correct.

How often should people be looking at their goals? Is it enough to make financial resolutions at the beginning of each year, or should you do it more often?

As often as you can. If you made a plan to do this once a quarter, I think it would be incredibly valuable. For example, let's say you set a goal to save $100 into your child's 529 account, because you decided education was really important, it was something that you really valued. Three months later you wake up and say, "Gosh, we said we'd save $100 a month and we only did that that first month. Is it still really important to us? Yes, it is. Maybe we should automate that." Three months later, again no blame or shame, you think, "Oh wow, look, we saved $100 a month." So I think quarterly is a good time.

Anything else you'd like readers to know about your book?

One of my goals was to write a personal finance book for people who never read personal finance books. And what I mean by that is, there's this group, 35-to-50-year-olds, educated, typically have decent incomes, that are starting to realize, "Wow, I've got some important financial responsibilities that I haven't thought that much about." But you don't really feel like running out and grabbing the latest David Ramsey book or whatever. So it was a personal finance book written for people who would never read personal finance books, and it's not meant to be prescriptive. It's really meant to sort of open the door to a bunch of conversations, because a friend of mine always says that "Personal finance is more personal than it is finance." So I think one of the challenges is trying to get people the tools to have the right conversations instead of being very prescriptive about exactly what you should do.

Uncle Tony & The Barman

This is from Ling Choon Ming, our Tea Gang friend, for your reading pleasure.


Ha ha ha ... This is so good!!


"Spare a thought for Uncle Tony F, Chief Executive of 'Air Asia"......

Arriving in a hotel in KL Sentral he went to the bar and asked for a pint of draught Guinness.
The barman nodded and said, "That will be one Ringgit please, Uncle Tony."
Somewhat taken aback, Uncle Tony replied, "That's very cheap," and handed over his money.
"Well, we try to stay ahead of the competition", said the barman. "And we are serving free pints every Wednesday evening from 6 until 8. We have the cheapest draught in Asia"
"That is remarkable value" Uncle Tony comments
"I see you don't seem to have a glass, so you'll probably need one of ours. That will be 3 Ringgit please.
" Uncle Tony scowled, but paid up. He took his drink and walked towards a seat.
"Ah, you want to sit down?" said the barman. "That'll be an extra 2 Ringgit. You could have pre-book the seat, and it would have only cost you a Ringgit"
"I think you may to be too big for the seat sir, can I ask you to sit in this frame please
" Uncle Tony attempts to sit down but the frame is too small and when he can't squeeze in he complains "Nobody would fit in that little frame".
"I'm afraid if you can't fit in the frame you'll have to pay an extra surcharge of RM 4 for your seat sir"
Tony swore to himself, but paid up. "I see that you have brought your laptop with you" added the barman.
"And since that wasn't pre-booked either, that will be another 3 Ringgit"
Uncle Tony was so annoyed that he walked back to the bar, slammed his drink on the counter, and yelled, "This is ridiculous, I want to speak to the manager".
"Ah, I see you want to use the counter," says the barman, "that will be 2 Ringgit please."
Uncle's face was red with rage. "Do you know who I am?" "Of course I do Mr Fernandes
"I've had enough, What sort of Hotel is this? I come in for a quiet drink and you treat me like this. I insist on speaking to a manager!"
"Here is his E mail address, or if you wish, you can contact him between 9 and 9.10 every morning, Monday to Tuesday at this free phone number. Calls are free, until they are answered, then there is a talking charge of only 10 sen per second provided you use Tune Talk using other mobile carriers would incur our normal charges of 30 Sen per second
"I will never use this bar again"
"OK Uncle , but remember, we are the only bar in Asia selling pints for one Ringgit...so that now everyone can drink "

A Matter of Confidence Crisis In U.S.A.

The recovery in U.S.A. has become a concern. If you are keen on this issue, have a look at Greenspan's very insightful thoughts which touch on the factors undermining the growth recovery of the world's largest economy.

By: Dan Weil

It’s highly unlikely that ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan would call himself a Keynesian. But he obviously agrees with the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes that “animal spirits” represent a crucial ingredient of a healthy economy.

A crisis of confidence grips the economy, Greenspan says. That helps to explain why GDP growth slipped to 1.7 percent in the second quarter from 3.6 percent in the first quarter.

Capital investment should have climbed sharply in recent months, as corporate profits soared, Greenspan writes in the Financial Times. But that investment has fallen short, and that combined with a collapse of the consumer sector has depressed the economy, he says.

“These shortfalls (are) the result of widespread private-sector anxiety over America’s future,” Greenspan argues. “(And they) have defused much, if not most, of the impact of the administration’s fiscal stimulus.”

Moreover, the government’s intervention in the economy through that stimulus has itself increased the anxiety, he says.

“The instinctive reaction of businessmen and householders to uncertainty is to disengage from those activities that require confident predictions of how the future will unfold,” Greenspan writes.

Both the corporate and consumer sectors are unwilling to invest in illiquid assets, such as real estate Greenspan says. Instead there has been a massive move to the safety of Treasuries.

“It is this rapid rise in aversion to illiquid risk that explains a large part of the anemic recovery in the U.S.,” he writes.

Government intervention in the economy is a problem now, Greenspan says. “Almost all economists and policymakers agree activist government was necessary in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy,” he says.

But the $862 billion fiscal stimulus has been of questionable value, Greenspan notes. And he’s not too impressed with the new financial reform law.

“It is going to take years to address the unprecedented complexity of final rulemaking required in the massive Dodd-Frank bill,” Greenspan writes.

“The inevitable uncertainty engendered will inhibit financial innovation and intermediation, and render the rules that will govern a future financial marketplace disturbingly conjectural.”

Uncertainty will be the result, he says. “This is bound to have a significant impact on economic growth.”

Star economist Robert Shiller agrees with Greenspan about the confidence deficit, though he thinks more government intervention is needed to boost confidence rather than less.

“In a broad sense, damage to morale — which Keynes called “animal spirits” — surely ranks as one of the most important reasons for the American economy’s persistent weakness,” Shiller wrote in The New York Times.

Meanwhile, James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, shares Greenspan’s wariness of government intervention, telling Bloomberg that regulators are looking behind at the last crisis instead of ahead at what dangers lurk.

AFTERSHOCK

It took slightly more than four months for this extraordinary book "Aftershock" to reach me.

Aftershock was coauthored by David Wiedemer, Robert Wiedemer and Cindy Spitzer after the breakout of the financial tsunami in 2008. They made their names with their first book America's Bubble Economy which predicted the subprime credit meltdown well in advance.

I still remember way back in 2006, I started to get warnings about the imminent financial crisis in USA. For those who took heed to the calls, they would have profited from the burst of the bubble.

Now they have come out with another one for you as investor to " Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown".

I believe it is a great book to read!

New Economic Model & 10th Malaysia Plan

This article in Malaysiakini is really food for thought. If you are literate in Mandarin, take a few minutes off to read through.

土著议程复辟有违新经济模式纳吉保留三成固打巩固马来票
刘嘉铭 6月12日 晚上8点36分
在《第十大马计划》被揭与新经济模式相互抵触后，社会经济与环境研究中心（SERI）高级研究员杜乾焕今天也加入批评的行列，更点出此项经济计划，充斥着政治考量。“土著议程的复辟一定程度反映了纳吉的顾虑。他或许认为，反正赢不回华裔的支持，何不巩固马来基本盘。”杜乾焕是今早在社会经济与环境研究中心主办的“《第十大马计划》与新经济模式”圆桌论坛上，如此表示。另外两名主讲人是马来亚大学经济管理学院教授拉惹拉西亚（Rajah Rasiah）及升旗山国会议员刘镇东。社会经济与环境机构也是槟州政府的智库，该论坛共获约40人出席。仍强调种族未关注阶级杜乾焕（左图）不否认，新经济模式的构思有所突破，即首度专注照顾最低基层的40％家庭，一改以往仅顾及消灭绝对贫穷，忽略相对贫困的盲点。但他点出，新经济模式与《第十大马计划》的主要冲突点，在于前者提出依据需求的扶弱政策，淡化种族色彩。唯后者仍提出30％固打的土著议程。“《第十大马计划》没有提到如何缩小贫富鸿沟的详情，或是对阶级问题的关注。相反的仍强调种族因素。”“两者根本是背道而驰。”守旧政策约束专才机构杜乾焕对我国如何跨越 “中等收入陷阱"，表示极为关注。针对首相署在《第十大马计划》下将设立专才机构（Talent Corporation），他提醒，当局曾推行三个类似的计划，唯因未对症下药而皆失败告终。他对专才机构的成效存疑，因为我国下滑的教育程度、移民条例及守旧的政策将约束了人才库（talent pool）的建造。“最关键的是，移民者觉得国家前景不乐观与遭受不平等的待遇。”他补充，大马不仅人才外流，也无力吸引外国专才到来。根据他取得的资料，大马共流失了上百万名大学毕业生到新加坡、美国、澳洲、台湾及香港等地区服务。投国阵反对票阻消费税此外，杜乾焕担心，私营化将进一步侵蚀人民的公共福利。其中，保健制度越来越缺乏关怀及排他，正突现政府常保留了病人买单的观念。他接着点出，大马的财务策略正从累进的所得税，转向间接性的递减税制。针对此，他不忘暗示，人民应通过投票否决国阵政府，以阻此趋势恶化。“消费税就是一个例子，我相信国阵不会放弃落实。因此，你们在选举时应该知道怎样做。”杜乾焕也不认同，政府常宣称津贴是财政赤字的祸首，需加以削减而向穷人开刀。虽然他同意检讨津贴制度，但不是彻底撤消，特别是针对穷人的保健、教育及公共交通的津贴。“减少赤字可通过提高收入、减少开销或两者兼施。政府如果可削减各领域，特别是军购上的挥霍、浪费与纰漏，则可以取得一样的成果。”不公劳工政策阻碍平等最后，杜乾焕提出，不公平的劳工政策是建立一个平等社会的绊脚石。目前，我国的工运软弱，持续依赖外劳，被裁退的员工则缺乏社会安全网。他认为，依赖私人机构的发展策略或可促进经济成长，但未必可打造一个更加平等的社会。“社会差距的扩大，突现了自由企业经济的缺陷与失灵。因此，国家需要干预，纠正以上缺点。但如果仍秉持保守及右翼的意识形态，一切都是徒然。”

Australian Dollar - A Darling Carry Trade Target!

If you missed out, sadly to speak, the last windfall on Australian Dollar after the burst of the subprime mortgage bubble in USA when our nerves were gripped by the furious fall of AUD (Australian Dollar), then you should grab it back this time.

AUD is simply a darling currency of a lot of international currency investors. It has been target of carry trade by reason of its high-yielding nature. Other reasons include sound economy from the buoyant commodities.

Many thanks to the crisis in Greece for the recent sharp fall in AUD. Get hold of it this time!

Have a good weekend!

A Talk On Financial Planning And Investments (理财与投资）

Financial Planning is getting popular in this modern age. Like it or not, we have to learn to manage our wealth well so that we may be financially free.

Financial planning encompasses earnings, savings and investments with the aim to make your wealth grow.

Investments in this era are getting increasingly sophisticated. We have to manage our risks well if we do not want to get caught in straits. Take a look at the financial tsunami in 2008 that swept across the whole globe and you would appreciate my point better.

I have been invited by MAF of Ai Ming Methodist Church to give a talk titled "Financial Planning and Investments" on April 24 (Saturday) at 7:30 pm. Young adults and adults are getting pretty keen on wealth matter nowadays.

This is going to be the first time I go on stage to give talk on financial planning. All my previous talks centered on the contemporary economic issues.

NEM Vs NEP

The much-awaited NEM is now unveiled to both eager Malaysians and foreign investors. It is much less exciting than we initially anticipated. Apparently we still have not hit on the head of the nail!

Malaysiainsider has the following report:

KUALA LUMPUR, March 30 — Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak today unveiled economic reforms that he said would make this country a developed nation by 2020 but provided few clues as to how he would get there.
“I pledge that we will work to develop and implement economic reforms needed for the country to grow further,” Najib told an investment conference here.
Najib said the “New Economic Model” will see more divestments of government holdings in listed companies and the government is still in consultation on the reform of its subsidy policy.
However, there was no timeframe for the new taxes and for cuts in a subsidy regime that sees Malaysians pay one of the lowest prices for petrol in Asia and that cost the country RM24.5 billion in 2009 out of 160.2 billion in federal government operating spending. — Reuters

Bursa Malaysia Hots Up!

Bursa Malaysia is hotting up! Yesterday's trading closed with a volume of 1.2 billion shares. That is a good indication of heightened trading heat.

Next week appears to be exciting, if you are in the market.

CENTURY, KINSTEL, KNM, PERWAJA and ANNJOO-WB are some of the interesting picks for some attention.

Have a nice weekend!

Bull Or Bear?

It is mind-grinding when investors are caught in this bull-or-bear situation. We have calls from both sides. Now, which one are we going to take? Think twice before you jump!

Julie Crawshaw of Moneynews has the following to share with us.

Top money managers Laszlo Birinyi, Barton Biggs and Steve Leuthold may differ in their investing approaches, but reportedly are united on one point: The market is still heading up. The trio expects that stocks will continue to advance as the economy gains momentum, and fast corporate earnings growth will encourage investors to put money into stocks instead of bonds.Birinyi expects the rally will be a long one. In fact, his data show it lasting until at least April 2013. "By any definition, it is a bull market, and there's no stronger force in the market than momentum," he told Business Week. Biggs says stocks remain cheap relative to forecast earnings. "I'm very struck by the level of bearishness everywhere I go," notes Biggs, who predicts the next move in the S&P 500 Index will be a 10 percent to 15 percent gain. "I'm not obsessed with history. I'm bullish because I think the global economic recovery is on track and is going to be surprisingly strong.” “The world was falling apart in 2009. There's been a tremendous change."Leuthold finds investor wariness encouraging. "Individual investors, as measured by mutual fund flows, have absolutely no current enthusiasm for equity investing," he observes. "As a contrarian, I view this environment of disbelief and skepticism as quite bullish."Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist for Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, dissents. Grantham believes the market is now overvalued. Fair value for the S&P 500, he asserts, is 875, which is 25 percent below Wednesday’s close of 1,166.21. "My recommendation to the typical investor would be to think outside the U.S.," Grantham says. "And when he thinks about the U.S., to be exclusively in defensive blue chips.” “The chances of a softening again — not a big collapse, but a secondary softening in the economy — are higher than the market believes."

FOREX Market Trading

FOREX market is huge with daily turnover coming close to 4 trillion U.S. dollars. Although the returns of the market are lucrative, but the risks are shocking. I have seen players coming out smashed.

Seriously you need both good luck and expertise to make in forex.

Christopher Ruddy of Moneynews has the following to share with you:

Take a look at the landscape of the American economy: How safe do you feel?
Everywhere you turn there are signs of political unrest, financial instability, and serious threats of inflation.
Our weakened economy has removed the safety net we’ve all been accustomed to our entire lives.
Right now — more than ever — you need to take unconventional steps to protect and grow your wealth.
The old days of simply putting your money in stocks and bonds are long gone. . . Americans need investments that can keep up with a weakened dollar and a full-frontal inflationary attack.
Although a diversified portfolio lined with stocks, gold, and other securities is always a smart bet, and one I highly recommend — you need to look beyond your comfort zone to find the best investments for turbulent times like these.
Look at it this way.
If all of your investments are in America — how “diversified” and “safe” are you really? Moving into international ventures now could be the difference between prosperity and the poorhouse.
Sean Hyman, a member of my Financial Brain Trust, wants to alert you to a “hidden” international market ripe with profit opportunities.
This market has been cut off to average Americans for a very long time. But now serious investors of all experience levels and portfolio sizes can capitalize on it with just a computer and an internet connection.
Sean has prepared a report I’d like to show you. In it, he lays out in great detail how your friends, family, and neighbors are delving into this global market. Some are extracting serious returns.

Bond Disasters Brewing In U.S. And Europe

Ellen Chang of Moneynews reported what Martin Hennecke had to say about the bonds in the western economies.

Investors should take a closer look at how much recovery has occurred in the United States and other Western countries, said Martin Hennecke, associate director at investment and financial advice firm Tyche.The economies in those countries are not generating a real recovery, he said.“We are not seeing any growth in the United States, let alone any sustainable growth,” he told CNBC. "The U.S. economy has never really recovered. They have just been throwing money at the problems, been bailing out the banks,” Hennecke said.The bond market could be hit with the next crisis, especially long-term U.S. Treasuries and even European sovereign bonds and currencies, Hennecke said. "They are very much at risk now with this huge budget deficit," he said. The U.S., United Kingdom and other countries will encounter high rates of inflation, said Hennecke. “With the start of (the) sovereign bond crisis across the Western countries that we have seen in Greece and are starting to see in Spain … across the euro zone there's absolute disasters there,” he says.“We are going to see a sovereign bond crisis probably leading to very high or even hyper inflation in most Western countries and that could actually — ironically, theoretically — even drive up the markets because if you have high inflation, anything with any tangible assets behind it via commodities, companies … could even rise," Hennecke said.The U.S. central bank is holding back on issuing business and consumer loans, Bloomberg reported.“The Fed remains more concerned about the sustainability of the recovery and disinflation than accelerating inflation in the near-term. They are in no hurry to raise rates, nothing before the fourth quarter or later," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "And their position is justified.”

Mark Faber's Talk On Stock Fall

Dan Weil of Moneynews reported two days an insightful talk by Mark Faber on stock fall. For your information, Mark Faber is an investment guru and his views carry weight.


U.S. stocks may drop 20 percent if they top their January highs, says investment guru Mark Faber.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached a high of 1,150 Jan. 19. “I’m not sure we will make a new high,” Faber, editor of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," told Bloomberg. “But if we do, I don’t think it will be that far – maybe 1,200 – and then I wouldn’t rule out a correction of at least 20 percent.” On the currency front, Faber says the euro is very oversold, trading at about $1.35. “The news has been horrible for the euro zone,” he said. “I think the euro can rebound to $1.40 before it goes lower.”Fundamentals are weak for both the dollar and the euro, Faber maintains. “What you have in Europe is indirect monetization of the debt.”As for the greenback, “When investors realize fiscal deficits aren’t going to come down, that one state after another is going bust and that monetization is inevitable, at that point the dollar will be weak,” Faber said.But it won’t slip against the euro, he says. “Both currencies are sick.” Gold and Asian currencies will benefit as a result, Faber says.Citigroup’s chief equities strategist Tobias Levkovich sees the stock market a bit differently than Faber.Levkovich told CNBC that the S&P could reach 1,250 in coming weeks, before ending the year at 1,175 as the Federal Reserve continues to withdraw its monetary stimulus.

We are going to see a lot of bumps ahead!